I found out about it today. And I'm over the moon. So what is the theory behind it? Well, at this point I am going to pillage directly from Wikipedia (I know, I know - Wikipedia should always be a suspect source of research, it's not true academic research, etc etc - I know, I know. But I have corroborated the following statement with cross-referencing of other, more 'bona fide' references online):
"The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which "people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it".[as per Kruger, Justin; David Dunning - 1999"Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 77 (6): 1121–34] The unskilled therefore suffer from illusory superiority, rating their own ability as above average, much higher than in actuality; by contrast the highly skilled underrate their abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority. This leads to a perverse result where less competent people will rate their own ability higher than more competent people. It also explains why actual competence may weaken self-confidence because competent individuals falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding."
Basically, the theory postulates that the more incompetent a person is, the more they overestimate their actual competence. And, better still, the exact opposite is absolutely true, i.e. competent people are the ones most likely to doubt their abilities.
I'm over the moon because I am consistently and constantly amazed (and appalled) at how many people I come across who are decidedly incompetent (i.e. plain sub-standard) at what they do or what they say, and yet they're so confident of their abilities. And, even more galling to me, is how often these incompetents are doing very well in life, thank you very much! That offends me to the core. And I can only put it down to the sheer mediocrity that pervades society today on so many different levels. More than ever before, I strongly suspect.
It is also here that I immediately wish to strike down any suspicions that I am just a frustrated wannabe hack who is envious of the success of others (i.e. these pervasive incompetents). I have no holier-than-thou complex nor any instant, knee-jerk rejection of others. Not at all. I am in awe of genuine talent and hard work and perseverance in other people, famous or not. What I'm NOT in awe of and what I DO resent is how much mediocrity and, yes, incompetence I see around me and how often it gets success and the respect of others. I cannot abide by that.
Without wishing to sound pedantic or make myself out to be some 'misunderstood genius' (which I know I am not), I did nevertheless find much comfort in the flip-side of the Dunning-Kruger study, i.e. namely that those who are competent are also those who most undervalue their worth, competence, etc. And I do really relate to that. I am consistently told by others about my talents, potential, etc, yet I do realize that I can often be beset by self-doubt and a real questioning of these talents others speak of. I know that what I do I do with competence and a striving for excellence, whatever my personal doubts. That I do know. Which is why the incompetence of others irks me no bloody end!
I believe that the Dunning-Kruger Effect goes to the very core of what can be so bad and so crippling in modern society, in any given field or human endeavour.
The paraphrased words of the philosopher Bertrand Russell (with whom I share a birthday, by the way ;-) are a fitting way to end this post:
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.”
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